Author Topic: The Brexodus  (Read 353945 times)

Offline Belker

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Re: The Brexodus
« Reply #1200 on: September 18, 2019, 07:56:23 pm »
Not so confusing.
There will be one extension which will get the UK past Xmas.
There will be a referendum before Xmas which won't solve the problem.
They won't leave voluntarily but they'll be fukked out by the EU by March/April/May 2020, Because the new German EU president will have new, more urgent things to worry about...
I hope your right Watty because betting wise I'm all over the 2nd referendum at 5/2 prior to 2020, currently now trading at 25/1.
John M stated before that if a UK referendum is announced then it must be announced 90 days prior to polling date, so if'n that is true it makes a 2nd Brexit referendum in 2019 highly unlikely.

Offline Belker

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Re: The Brexodus
« Reply #1201 on: September 18, 2019, 08:08:59 pm »
SCORES ON THE DOORS !

A few questions fer the Brexit Boffins ?
(Simple Answers will suffice !)

Question 1;

Will Britain leave the EU on 31st Oct, with or without a deal ?

Question 2;
If they go fer the extension, will they leave in 3 months time, with or without a deal ?

Question 3;
Will there ever be a 2nd Brexit referendum ?

Current Quotes;
Belker/Ken; No, No, Yes.
Watty; No, Yes, Yes.
John M; No, No, No.

@ DM and LL, your next up to Bat ?
All others welcome to join in.

Online watty

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Re: The Brexodus
« Reply #1202 on: September 18, 2019, 08:13:24 pm »
You're mad to be betting on this.

Anyways... I don't know if the 'Institute for Government' is impartial but 21 weeks is, say, 5 months?  Nov + 5 months = March/April 2020?

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/second-referendum-brexit
Quote
Past practice provides a guide to the stages for a further referendum. The first step would be the drafting and introduction of legislation to enable a referendum to take place. The bill would then need to pass through Parliament: this took seven months in the case of the 2016 referendum, but the process would have to happen much more quickly in current circumstances.

The Electoral Commission normally takes up to 12 weeks to test the proposed question but this could also be curtailed. The Constitution Unit thinks this task could be completed in a minimum of eight weeks, and that Parliament could complete the legislative process in a further three weeks if necessary. The length of the referendum campaign would also be specified in legislation. The formal, regulated referendum period must last a minimum of 10 weeks, under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act (PPERA).

A fair estimate is that the whole process would take a minimum of 21 weeks, but this would be much shorter than other recent referendums.

Offline Belker

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Re: The Brexodus
« Reply #1203 on: September 18, 2019, 08:24:46 pm »
You're mad to be betting on this.

Anyways... I don't know if the 'Institute for Government' is impartial but 21 weeks is, say, 5 months?  Nov + 5 months = March/April 2020?

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/second-referendum-brexit
Quote
Past practice provides a guide to the stages for a further referendum. The first step would be the drafting and introduction of legislation to enable a referendum to take place. The bill would then need to pass through Parliament: this took seven months in the case of the 2016 referendum, but the process would have to happen much more quickly in current circumstances.

The Electoral Commission normally takes up to 12 weeks to test the proposed question but this could also be curtailed. The Constitution Unit thinks this task could be completed in a minimum of eight weeks, and that Parliament could complete the legislative process in a further three weeks if necessary. The length of the referendum campaign would also be specified in legislation. The formal, regulated referendum period must last a minimum of 10 weeks, under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act (PPERA).

A fair estimate is that the whole process would take a minimum of 21 weeks, but this would be much shorter than other recent referendums.
Do you wish to changes your guesses Watty ?
A 24 hour window of change/grace period is allowed.

Online watty

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Re: The Brexodus
« Reply #1204 on: September 18, 2019, 08:25:46 pm »
I hope your right Watty because betting wise I'm all over the 2nd referendum at 5/2 prior to 2020, currently now trading at 25/1.
I'm not a gambling person (Euromillions aside*) but there's the old saying that bookies never lose.  Which I'm sure you understand...

You got in at 5/2 ( very roughly 2/1) and now it's gone out to 'never gonna happen' at 25/1 (50/2).  Am I understanding that right?



*  I'll buy a Euromillions ticket with the change in my pocket but I almost never buy a Lotto ticket because I'd have to use a €5 note (which is 'real' money).  I've known too many people got caught up with gambling and searching phone boxes (remember them!) for money...
 

Online watty

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Re: The Brexodus
« Reply #1205 on: September 18, 2019, 08:34:23 pm »
Do you wish to changes your guesses Watty ?
A 24 hour window of change/grace period is allowed.
Not so confusing.
There will be one extension which will get the UK past Xmas.
There will be a referendum before Xmas which won't solve the problem.
They won't leave voluntarily but they'll be fukked out by the EU by March/April/May 2020 (edit -->) Because the new German EU president will have new, more urgent things to worry about...
The timing might change but I'll stick with what the broad thrust of what I've written...

The new EU President will change the dynamic on the EU side... Juncker (the current President until 31 Oct) wants a legacy so he's hoping for a deal but the new President (von der Leyen *German*, 1st Nov) will want a clean sheet.

john m

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Re: The Brexodus
« Reply #1206 on: September 18, 2019, 08:36:14 pm »
What would the Question in any referendum be .Boris wants a General Election only way to get that is to resign but Boris might get Et Tu by his own Brutus .If he proposes a vote of No Confidence in himself and his Government Mick Gove will probably challenge him for leader of the Conservative party .As Gove was not beaten in the head to head the Party might anoint him to lead them into a General Election.Boris has put all his eggs in out by 31st Oct that if he fails to deliver you would think the knives will be out for him.the ERG and the Brexiteers will fight in the Carpark at No 10 .Its amusing to watch them falling apart but its serious shit for this Stone in a puddle of a country .Dont think there is any chance of a second referendum this year .

Offline Belker

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Re: The Brexodus
« Reply #1207 on: September 18, 2019, 09:51:10 pm »
I hope your right Watty because betting wise I'm all over the 2nd referendum at 5/2 prior to 2020, currently now trading at 25/1.
I'm not a gambling person (Euromillions aside*) but there's the old saying that bookies never lose.  Which I'm sure you understand...

You got in at 5/2 ( very roughly 2/1) and now it's gone out to 'never gonna happen' at 25/1 (50/2).  Am I understanding that right?



*  I'll buy a Euromillions ticket with the change in my pocket but I almost never buy a Lotto ticket because I'd have to use a €5 note (which is 'real' money).  I've known too many people got caught up with gambling and searching phone boxes (remember them!) for money...
I know my bet is Lost, It looked good at the time @ 3.50 and traded the next day at 2.50 but has since declined in value to 26.00.
I still reckon there will be a 2nd referendum but not before 2020.

dalymount

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Re: The Brexodus
« Reply #1208 on: September 18, 2019, 10:29:46 pm »
The whole brexit crisis is down to the remainer obstructionists MPS who refused to carry out the mandate they were instructed to by their elecrrote. This is a complete deniel of democracy, and is also the reason I took my name off the voting registrar

Offline Belker

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Re: The Brexodus
« Reply #1209 on: September 18, 2019, 10:43:57 pm »
The whole brexit crisis is down to the remainer obstructionists MPS who refused to carry out the mandate they were instructed to by their elecrrote. This is a complete deniel of democracy, and is also the reason I took my name off the voting registrar
So your informed educated guesses DM on the above simple 3 Brexit predictions are ?

john m

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Re: The Brexodus
« Reply #1210 on: September 19, 2019, 08:41:08 am »
Watching the Supreme Court yesterday our Kid says what you watching ?I tell her she gives me a blank Cop the Fuck on Look and says What ? .I say its Father Ted for people with a Leaving Cert .

The Liffey Lip

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Re: The Brexodus
« Reply #1211 on: September 19, 2019, 08:49:14 am »
For what it's worth I'm going along with Belker........no...no...no but they'll move the goalposts before too long.

john m

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Re: The Brexodus
« Reply #1212 on: September 19, 2019, 08:57:09 am »
For what it's worth I'm going along with Belker........no...no...no but they'll move the goalposts before too long.

Your agreeing with Me Lip not Belker .I see Boris has told the UDA to go fuck themselves he dosent need them .Arlene was only short of wearing a Rainbow Thong last night in the Four Seasons as she begged Leo to help her and his Protestant Neighbours to Back Down gracefully as Boris tried to sacrifice them for Five More Years in No 10...Brexit Goalposts are Fitted with Honda 50 engines they are very moveable .Reece Mogg ,Farage,and Franswar will be trowing their toys at their Nannies if Boris abandons the Good Loyal UDA .

The Liffey Lip

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Re: The Brexodus
« Reply #1213 on: September 19, 2019, 09:03:14 am »
John, if the working-class prod ever discovers the truth about who started the UDA and UVF...the 40 yr old Presbyterian, Belfast Granny will be out piking her local peeler to death. I like Arlene..typical farmer's daughter with a weightlifter's pelvis and hind quarters...I'd say she'd tear the average Fenian Casanova to ribbons within 5 mins.

dalymount

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Re: The Brexodus
« Reply #1214 on: September 19, 2019, 09:24:52 am »
Not a bad singer either

 


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