Author Topic: Free Stuff  (Read 1734 times)

Offline silverbullet

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Re: Free Stuff
« Reply #45 on: January 12, 2021, 12:50:17 pm »
WHEN THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALK STOCKS IT WAS A GREAT SELL SIGNAL IN 1929. SO WHAT ARE THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALKING ABOUT NOW?
(FORTUNE Magazine)
By JOHN ROTHCHILD
April 15, 1996
(FORTUNE Magazine) – JOE KENNEDY, a famous rich guy in his day, exited the stock market in timely fashion after a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. He figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good, a theory also advanced by Bernard Baruch, another vested interest who described the scene before the big Crash:

"Taxi drivers told you what to buy. The shoeshine boy could give you af the day's financial news as he worked with rag and polish. An old beggar who regularly patrolled the street in front of my office now gave me tips and, I suppose, spent the money I and others gave him in the market. My cook had a brokerage account and followed the ticker closely. Her paper profits were quickly blown away in the gale of 1929."

Are we at the same fatal stage in the market today, when people who aren't expected to have stock tips have stock tips, including hot dog vendors, shoeshine boys, the homeless, pedicurists, barroom dancers, toll takers, and the trumpet player at the racetrack? Will stock prices fall off the cliff under the weight of enormous popularity?

A team of journalists (myself and reporter Melanie Warner) did an informal survey, with her in Manhattan and me at the other end of the East Coast, in Key West. She stopped the first cop she saw in Midtown and asked him for a stock tip. He said he owned Argentinian Telephone but couldn't recommend it, because in two years Evita Bell was off 35% and he was waiting for a rally so he could sell it. Otherwise, he's wary of stocks, but he did have a tip: Planet Hollywood, soon to be taken public. "I see all the people in there," he says, parroting a Peter Lynchism to buy where the crowd is thick. At this point we ask, Is it bad for equities when a cop who owns a stock he doesn't like recommends a stock he's afraid to buy?

At 51st and Broadway, Melanie encountered a Starbucks frothmeister in a dull moment between tall skinny decaf cappuccinos. She expected him to tip her off to Starbucks, but he didn't mention it. The last stock he owned was Amgen, which he got scared out of after two stock splits, although what was scary about a stock split he never explained. At the moment, his only exposure to equities is the Dreyfus Global Growth fund, so she was two for two with people invested abroad. Does this mean the end for the foreign markets?

The Starbucks guy finally did give a tip of sorts: a stock he wouldn't name. "It's a housewares company, but it isn't on the market yet, so I can't really talk about it," he said, sounding like a chastened Jeff Vinik.

A carpenter on a billboard crew dropped what he was doing to give a rundown on his portfolio: Pfizer, Intel, Disney, Morton International, GE, Olin Chemical, EuroDisney, and a few mutual funds. His one regret in the group is EuroDisney, down from $18 to $3. "My 8-year-old daughter might see a profit in that one, but I won't," he lamented.

The ID checker at a fitness club had sunk $5,200 in a Fidelity blue-chip fund with mediocre results. He also owns a little IBM, Coke, and U.S. Steel on the side, and he's looking at AT&T, Citicorp, and pharmaceuticals as potential buys. He thinks of the stock market as "almost like an ATM machine," which ought to ring Baruch's alarm bell, except that at the moment the ID checker is less than 100% bullish. He's bearish on high-tech stocks and Internet fads.

Finding a shoeshine boy on a corner proved impossible. Along with the paperboys, the shoeshine boys have been replaced by grownups who have moved the business indoors. Melanie tracked down a group of them who work the stirrups in a shoe repair shop. They had no stock tips. Even their agents who stand at the counter and handle the money had no stock tips. "We've got socks, not stocks," they told her. Only one man admitted to owning a mutual fund, and he said he sold out several years ago, just before the fund took off.

On the Key West pier, where vendors of all stripes assemble at sundown, stock tips were scarce. The biker with an iguana on his shoulder had no stock tip, nor did the juggler, the clown, the magician, the guy with three house cats, the earring vendor, or the snow cone salesman. The tarot card reader shook her head in bewilderment at the mention of Wall Street. The guy selling velvet sunset scenes had this advice: "Stay as far away from brokers as possible." I got a positive response from the proprietor of the Mail a Coconut booth, who said he was long technology stocks and got out with a big profit last December, about the same time the Fidelity Magellan fund was doing the same.

Based on our informal poll, the market has a way to go before everybody has a stock tip, although in New York City only the shoeshine people seem to lack one. The fact that Wall Street hasn't taken a shoeshine operation public is itself a sign that speculation is not as rampant as it could be. Still, we're a long way from 1982, when the Dow was below 1,000 and even the brokerage firms didn't have a stock tip.


Offline Punter

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Re: Free Stuff
« Reply #46 on: January 12, 2021, 12:54:13 pm »
John M ---80s beaten in the Park .Was it Babba Karam ?I left the park that day crying Asmussen was muck .

No it was a unraced 2 y/o --Heavens Nook trained by JSB, who raced the following weeks in Leopardstown and Curragh @ 8/1 and 12/1 cleared over 20K !

Park Express won the Park Stakes that day in the Park 7/1--my get out of jail card !

I was on some roll at the time !

Offline john m

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Re: Free Stuff
« Reply #47 on: January 12, 2021, 01:39:51 pm »
My worst best day .Leopardstown the first Sunday Racing televised  Backed the first 6 winners 7th race was a Pro Am Sweepstakes race it was a set up down to two contestants .All White of Welds and Rising of Prendergasts .It was a job Rising was owned by the fella who owns the hotel on the Curragh .I went out with £40 up just under 2000 when I met a rep I knew From Conatys who supplied the Pubs he told me it was a job .I was going to lump on All White @ 11/10  Rising was 5/4 so I lumped on Rising he won by half a length but got disqualified for interference inside the last furlong .I went home with my £40 notes as I had separated my stake from my winnings I still do that .That was about 1980 .£2000 then was a fortune but when your on a roll you get carried away .

Offline mercenary for hire

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Re: Free Stuff
« Reply #48 on: January 12, 2021, 01:56:10 pm »
^About the stock market everything is being driven up by negative interest rates and access to trading apps by everyone with a smartphone. Especially in the US where many are commission free.Everytime they give stimulus money it ends up traded on apps.

Everything is still going up for now but the hardest part is to get out before the plane smashes into the ground.Could be tomorrow...could be next year.


Offline john m

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Re: Free Stuff
« Reply #49 on: January 12, 2021, 02:02:05 pm »
^About the stock market everything is being driven up by negative interest rates and access to trading apps by everyone with a smartphone. Especially in the US where many are commission free.Everytime they give stimulus money it ends up traded on apps.

Everything is still going up for now but the hardest part is to get out before the plane smashes into the ground.Could be tomorrow...could be next year.


You can see that Merch in Metals .Gold ,Silver and Platinum all up .I posted earlier Silver is where to hide a few notes two reasons its a semi precious metal but it will be needed to strengthen Solders that will be used in some of the new EVs traditional tin based Solders wont withstand the heat generated by certain parts .You can buy and hold Silver ingots or certs .I have been buying old cutlery in car boot and charity shops for years you can buy a spoon or a fork for 50c might have 6 or 7 euro worth of silver in it .

Offline mercenary for hire

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Re: Free Stuff
« Reply #50 on: January 12, 2021, 02:11:27 pm »
John the youngsters won't buy the metals like the old farts.They have no value for them.Gold went down during the capital riots and Bitcoin and Tesla went up.I'll wait an see what happens.I don't pretend to know the future.Things could go either way until Biden gets in office.

Offline john m

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Re: Free Stuff
« Reply #51 on: January 12, 2021, 02:18:22 pm »
John the youngsters won't buy the metals like the old farts.They have no value for them.Gold went down during the capital riots and Bitcoin and Tesla went up.I'll wait an see what happens.I don't pretend to know the future.Things could go either way until Biden gets in office.


Thats the Gamble Merch if you can guess right .Its just expensive to hold stocks and betting on margin or CFD are lethal if it goes wrong Ask Mr Quinn.

Offline Belker

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Re: Free Stuff
« Reply #52 on: January 13, 2021, 01:51:51 am »
Back in circa 1985 someone somewhere decided that it would be a good idea to place a 'Twenty year old' in to manage Cork's busiest betting shop. It was just the 2nd of my 4 'Baptismal's of Fire' and I accepted the job.
It was a 'Nutjob' shop, they were queing at the door at 9am and banging on the door after we closed.

I'm standing behind the counter one morning and this fella walks in through the side door of the counter, I walk over to him with every intention of 'Bopping him' and he introduces himself as 'John' and saying that he wanted to have this bet in private, I had a look at the dockets he had written out and basically it was a £300Ir punt Patent on 3 horses, and he lobs up 2K in sealed bank notes and pays the remainder from his wallet.

Offline Belker

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Re: Free Stuff
« Reply #53 on: January 13, 2021, 02:18:34 am »
The 3 horses he bet on were all trained by Nigel Tinkler. And over the course of the day most every scrote in the northside of Cork had plunged on the same 3 horses.
I remember the day well, I had my new assistant manager 'Prodigy' Bart beside me as the First horse won @ 7/2, then the 2nd won @ 9/2 and everything running on to the last horse at about 4/1, with still the hoards lumping on to the last horse.
No SIS back then, all we had was the Excel commentary on the blower. I don't remember the horses name but I remember his number, he was number 6. It was a photo-finish between numbers 6 and 8 and back in the Excel days the horse called First in the photo won 99% of the time.
The result was called; "Number 8 the winner", but still it cleaned us out on the day.

Many years later at a drunken Christmas party my ex assistant manager Bart said to me: "I remember that Fookin day, how you kept a straight face and never flinched when the result was called, Total Respect !".

Offline Belker

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Re: Free Stuff
« Reply #54 on: January 13, 2021, 02:49:21 am »
As it turned out the 3 horses he bet on were part of a new syndicate/tipping line called 'Full Circle Throughbreds' and 'John' was a paid up member along with about 2,500 others who got seemingly First dibs on the information.

'John' was back a week later with his customarily walk in behind the counter, this time laying out about 5K again in sealed bank notes to have about a monkee patent on 3 Full Circle Nigel Tinkler trained horses, but this time EVERY single scrote in the northside of Cork was on too. The First horse lost but the other 2 won at about 2/1 each, making it an unprofitable day fer us.

Then the whole 'Full Circle' thing went pear-shaped, as I'm guessing the Tinkler family pulled the plug on it. But 'John' kept coming back as did some of his legion of loyal followers fer a while, but you can only back so many losers before throwing in the towel !

Online Octavia1

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Re: Free Stuff
« Reply #55 on: January 13, 2021, 02:52:56 am »
The 3 horses he bet on were all trained by Nigel Tinkler. And over the course of the day most every scrote in the northside of Cork had plunged on the same 3 horses.
I remember the day well, I had my new assistant manager 'Prodigy' Bart beside me as the First horse won @ 7/2, then the 2nd won @ 9/2 and everything running on to the last horse at about 4/1, with still the hoards lumping on to the last horse.
No SIS back then, all we had was the Excel commentary on the blower. I don't remember the horses name but I remember his number, he was number 6. It was a photo-finish between numbers 6 and 8 and back in the Excel days the horse called First in the photo won 99% of the time.
The result was called; "Number 8 the winner", but still it cleaned us out on the day.

Many years later at a drunken Christmas party my ex assistant manager Bart said to me: "I remember that Fookin day, how you kept a straight face and never flinched when the result was called, Total Respect !".
As I said to johnny m ken .....only way to win in the bookies is if yur a trainer.....
Bout ten or more yers ago wen I backed an odd horse ....I used to look at the bettin on the internet.....anyway one day I seen this yoke being backed in a 6 horse race it was 100 / 1 an it was lit up backed to 80/1 ....I looked up its form an
It's only ran twice .....first race it was pulled up ...second race it collapsed and was removed from the race track by horse ambulance ......anyway I backed the thing wit a tenner win at
66 /1    ...it won by 25 lengths.......
I said to johnny that he was wrong in his assertion that if yu bet every odds on favourite in irish racing yull be quids in .......lot them Irish races have 20 - 30 horses in them an odds on favourite is a ludicrous bet an yu cannot beat the bookies cause the trainers are fiddlin all the time ......
The only way yu can make money at horses is if yu are a trainer or a jockey wit inside information......
Paddy power is backing on 29 horses an yur backing 1 ....
The maths adds up to the bookies is just smarter maths an why paddy is worth billions an everyone else is living in a delusional expensive harmful hobby ....
If I had me way bookies wud be illegal....
They are robbin cnuts of the ignorant workin class who cant afford it an deprive ther kids of nessesity for ther stupid
Ignorant expensive hobby .....
Poor cnuts

Offline john m

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Re: Free Stuff
« Reply #56 on: January 13, 2021, 03:33:08 am »
Occi I never said Back every Favourite in Ireland .What I said was Lay every odds on favourite in Ireland .

Offline Belker

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Re: Free Stuff
« Reply #57 on: January 13, 2021, 03:36:15 am »
Totally agreed Octy.
Ladbroke/William Hill (Grand Metropolitan), Etc trade on the stock exchange in Billions.
'We' however trade in Tenners and Scores in 'Lidl' and 'Carry-out' !

There was an elected chungwan made a great speech in the dail one day which really impressed me about the addiction of gambling.
I was so impressed that I emailed her telling her of my experience in the gambling world and that if she really wanted to know, then I could 'Blow the lid off'. She did email me back thanking me but never followed up.

I sent a similar email to another elected chungwan after her dail speech about Hare coursing and 'Blooding'. Of which (to my shame) I know way too much about. No reply from her.

Most likely they both just got their few quid fer saying something 'Kinda important to the Pink N' Fluffie brigade' in the dail with no intention of ever following it up.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2021, 03:44:17 am by Belker »

Offline Dr. Martin Gooter Bling

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Re: Free Stuff
« Reply #58 on: January 13, 2021, 05:16:45 am »
I was definitely born in the wrong country.
shudda been born in saudi arabia.
try and open a gargler or a gambling shop over there and you'll get your mickey chopped off and stuffed up your hole.
appear in public buckled or with a betting stub in your hand and you'll be sent down for fuckin 20 years.

Online Rat Catcher

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Re: Free Stuff
« Reply #59 on: January 13, 2021, 10:47:25 am »
You'd probably have ended up doctoring here and taking our women anall regardless, Doc.

 


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