Author Topic: September Storms  (Read 16724 times)

Offline John m

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Re: September Storms
« Reply #90 on: September 22, 2022, 05:37:19 pm »
Ken I owe you 50 on the Lizzie bet .Pat has to finish the race .If you have lost interest in the General election bet we can cancel it .I already have a stake with Paddy .
You owe 20 (not 50) on the Rushi/Liz bet.
Pat only has to Live to the end of his journey, not necessary finish fer me to collect that 50.
The 2 Irish election bets both still run.
But you can cash out on the whole lot and we are 'All Square' if you wish to Pony up a Ton 'n a Half (€150) ?
Offer available up to 11.59 tonight, Thurs 22/9/22.

Boyles have updated their general election betting;
https://www.boylesports.com/sports/politics/irish-politics
What was 4/1 a few weeks ago, is 25/1 today !

Be silly not to take your Offer I will Cash out send me your Bic .
Cash out with you then play with Boyles .Winner all round .Thanks for the Good odds for the Original wager and thanks for the Cash out option .
"Ahfuck

Offline John m

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Re: September Storms
« Reply #91 on: September 22, 2022, 05:44:35 pm »
How the Fuck do they Make Mary From the Cabra Road 2/7 Favourite to be the Next Taoiseach .If the Shinners do well they will win most of the seats from the other lefties .They WILL be the Biggest party but who will go into coalition with them .The two or three Greens .4 Profit from the People and one Marxist .Cant see Uncle Mathew or the Healy Wray Brothers marching to Mary Lous Drumbeat .Labour would be lucky to have more than 4 TDs .Next government will be a Rainbow ,rainbow ,Rainbow government probably with Paggo as Taoiseach .
"Ahfuck

Offline watty

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Re: September Storms
« Reply #92 on: September 22, 2022, 05:53:19 pm »
Ireland is too small for Vlad and Paschal and I'd imagine the EU would welcome them with open arms.  The next leader of FG might go in with SF 'strictly in the national interest' of course.  They are the party that tried to put tax (or VAT) on children's shoes afterall.
Getting old is compulsory whilst growing up is voluntary.

Offline John m

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Re: September Storms
« Reply #93 on: September 22, 2022, 06:05:01 pm »
Ken put me on to Boyles 25/1 an election this year ..People forget this is already a minority government it only takes one Government TD to jump ship and the Budget fails or any money bill they fail to pass there is no vote of confidence needed the government falls . There must be at few TDs worried about re election and minding their pension .Even if you have no interest that is a great value bet .Lads up around the wobbly bricks or lots of farmers must be weighing up their options .
"Ahfuck

Offline Belker

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Re: September Storms
« Reply #94 on: September 22, 2022, 08:16:50 pm »
Ken I owe you 50 on the Lizzie bet .Pat has to finish the race .If you have lost interest in the General election bet we can cancel it .I already have a stake with Paddy .
You owe 20 (not 50) on the Rushi/Liz bet.
Pat only has to Live to the end of his journey, not necessary finish fer me to collect that 50.
The 2 Irish election bets both still run.
But you can cash out on the whole lot and we are 'All Square' if you wish to Pony up a Ton 'n a Half (€150) ?
Offer available up to 11.59 tonight, Thurs 22/9/22.

Boyles have updated their general election betting;
https://www.boylesports.com/sports/politics/irish-politics
What was 4/1 a few weeks ago, is 25/1 today !

Be silly not to take your Offer I will Cash out send me your Bic .
Cash out with you then play with Boyles .Winner all round .Thanks for the Good odds for the Original wager and thanks for the Cash out option .
No worries, I'll email it on,
and there be a 'Drink' at the bar fer ya next time your in Cork.

Offline John m

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Re: September Storms
« Reply #95 on: September 24, 2022, 05:24:20 pm »
Large crowds have gathered in Dublin this afternoon to demonstrate against rising living costs.

Parts of Dublin city centre are expected to come to a standstill during the afternoon with crowds gathering around Parnell Square since lunchtime ahead of a march at 2.30pm calling on the Government to take action against rising inflation.

Attendees are expected to travel along O’Connell Street, across the River Liffey and on to Merrion Square.

There is expected to be considerable traffic disruption in the city centre as the crowd makes its way through the streets.

People Before Profit/Solidarity TD Paul Murphy is among those marching in protest at high living costs.

With thousands gathered at Parnell Square before the start of the protest, he says this is a sign to Government that urgent action is needed.

poster   

He said buses travelling from Limerick and Cork have been delayed by an accident on the M7 overnight.

He expects crowds to get bigger.

Groups started gathering shortly after 1pm with signs and placards calling on the Government to introduce measures to "freeze inflation, not the nation", enhanced rights for tenants and redress for mica victims.

Hundreds had gathered from about 1pm, with the crowd swelling significantly before thousands of protesters start marching.

A LOT OF DIFFERENT GROUPS HERE BUS LOADS OF WOBBLY BLOCKERS .They are looking at running candidates might encourage some sitting Government TDs to abandon ship to protect their Pensions in Wobbly Stone Constituencies .I would be watching Marc Mc Sharry .and Nessa Hourigan and Paddy Cosgrave to jump ship .Cannot see to many Independents going against the Crowd .Paddy Power or Boylesports 25/1 a General Election in 2022.If the Budget does pass Leo MUST GET A MAJORITY of the Dail to become Taoiseach .No Taoiseach no Government Mick from Cork must resign before they can vote on Leo .
"Ahfuck

Offline watty

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Re: September Storms
« Reply #96 on: September 24, 2022, 05:33:30 pm »
The Govt has a surplus of 4.4 billion - you can buy a lot of votes with that!  Throw money at the gas & leccy, double payments on all welfare payments for Xmas and a few quid for the Xmas drink and they'll be election gold  :2cheers
Getting old is compulsory whilst growing up is voluntary.

Offline John m

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Re: September Storms
« Reply #97 on: September 24, 2022, 06:01:58 pm »
Not sure Watty listening to them forcasting for next year .Its Unicorn Economics .US Interest rates have surges those big Tech business are leveraged to fuck .They borrowed tens of Billions to expand @very low interest rates but the two year Bond rate is now over 4% .Most of the Big tecs will buy back their own shares and leave nothing for Paggo .I see we sold off the last of the BOI shares yesterday just when the bank was going back into profits .I posted here a few months ago that the Sweepstakes building renovation has been cut back Facebook wont be expanding in the next few years .Other knock on effect Johnny Ronan will be down coin on that job so wont have the Coin to finish other projects .Cynide Tits has put the cat among the pigeons with her version of Shannon Tax free Zones and Financial services Center .Ireland just got out Irelaned .If you have kids between 18 and 30 most of them wont be here in 5 years .Our tax fiddling days are over .The Cupboard is old Mother Hubbard .I really think we are in some serious shit .If we react to the Brits we are Fucked if we dont react to them we are Fucked .
"Ahfuck

Offline John m

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Re: September Storms
« Reply #98 on: September 24, 2022, 09:31:09 pm »
Just in case you forget ..This is a Minority Government ....
Date   Constituency      Gain      Loss   Note
20 February 2020   Kildare South      Ceann Comhairle      Fianna Fáil   Seán Ó Fearghaíl takes office as Ceann Comhairle[5]
31 May 2020   Dublin South-Central      RTOC      Inds. 4 Change   Joan Collins resigns from Independents 4 Change and founds Right to Change[9]
27 April 2021   Dublin Bay South          Fine Gael   Eoghan Murphy resigns as a TD[10][11]
9 July 2021   Dublin Bay South      Labour       Ivana Bacik wins the 2021 Dublin Bay South by-election
15 September 2021   Sligo–Leitrim      Independent      Fianna Fáil   Marc MacSharry resigns from Fianna Fáil[12]
25 February 2022   Clare      Independent      Sinn Féin   Violet-Anne Wynne resigns from Sinn Féin[13]
19 May 2022   Dublin South-Central      Independent      Green   Patrick Costello suspended after breaking whip on motion on ownership of the National Maternity Hospital, Dublin
19 May 2022   Dublin Central      Independent      Green   Neasa Hourigan suspended after breaking whip on motion on ownership of the National Maternity Hospital
6 July 2022   Donegal      Independent      Fine Gael   Joe McHugh resigns whip to vote against Remediation of Dwellings Damaged By the Use of Defective Concrete Blocks Bill 2022[14]


 This Government are going to have to keep a lot of independents well bribed to survive .You give extra wedge to Independents you piss off your own members 25/1 a General election in 2022?

Im looking a Joe Mc Hugh and Marc Mc Sharry voting AGAINST the Government if there is not enough Wobbly Block Money .If they vote against the Government the government  are gone probably joined in voting against the Government by Houragan and Costello .
"Ahfuck

Offline John m

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Re: September Storms
« Reply #99 on: September 25, 2022, 07:09:11 am »
The Gay Byrne Budget .Something for Everybody in the audience but not enough for where it counts .....The Government will unveil an unprecedented €14 billion Budget package on Tuesday — but ministers were last night scrambling to agree business energy supports, relief for renters, cuts to childcare costs and welfare increases.

The Sunday Independent can reveal that significant problems have emerged with a new business energy support scheme (BESS) and a row between the Departments of Finance and Housing over how many people are renting is holding up plans for new tax relief.

EVEN OUR ROBBING LOW LIFE TAX FIDDLING GOVERNMENT CANNOT AFFORD THIS 25/1 Gone by Christmas ?
"Ahfuck

Offline Belker

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Re: September Storms
« Reply #100 on: September 25, 2022, 08:03:03 am »
The Govt has a surplus of 4.4 billion - you can buy a lot of votes with that!  Throw money at the gas & leccy, double payments on all welfare payments for Xmas and a few quid for the Xmas drink and they'll be election gold  :2cheers
@ John M, It's late Sept without even a hint of a general election, all your theories might well be proved correct over time, but pretty unlikely to be this year. Spoilsports 25/1 offer is IMO a 500/1 chance !

You might do better wearing off a birra shoe leather and opposing Mary Lou at 2/7 ?
But seeing as you hate them all so much, as in Mick from Cork, Leo, Eamon and Simon, it's hard to predict whom you would suggest as next Taoiseach ?

Offline John m

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Re: September Storms
« Reply #101 on: September 25, 2022, 09:27:24 am »
I will try and explain my thinking .Tradition dictates the Opposition opposes the Budget .The Government depend on two suspended Greens one FF who went over board and one FG who went overboard to keep them in power ..Joe Mc Hugh left FG over the Wobbly block money .If the Government dont give 100% recource and they cant because of Building inflation Mc Hugh who is from Donegal has to vote AGAINST them not abstain .Marc Mc Sharry represents another Wobbly Block constituency .He will have a personal vote a bit of his FF vote will stay with him but there will be a Wobbly Block Candidate .If Mc Sharry wants to be re elected he will hope to get transfers from the Wobbly Blockers ..If them Two vote against the Budget it will fail .

Now the Politics bit .If a Government fails to pass a Budget or Money Bill they automatically fail .Its not a vote of Confidence its a Failure to have the Confidence of the Dail .This Government are looking to give everybody a bit but if everybody gets something then nobody gets anything as nobody will be satisfied with what they got .Tony Gregory and Jim Kemmy brought down governments over budget issues .

I dont think Mary Lou will be Taoiseach its simple numbers you need 81TDs to form a Government if the Shinners have a blow out 57 they are still 24 short .Shinners will take most of their seats from the other Lefties who would of supported them so they cannot get a Majority and I dont believe they would form a Minority Government with the People who Profit .

My best Guess if there was a General Election then we would get a Rainbow ,Rainbow,Rainbow dollymixture Government for National Recovery with the Shinners staying as the Opposition .If this Happened Leo wouldnt get the Taoiseachs Job he is dispised even by his own Party .I think Pascal Donoughue would be the Compromise Taoiseach .

My reason for taking the 25/1 is simply value and Greed and self serving .TDs play the situation that suits them not the Country A TDs pension is worth bringing down a government for if it means you might get re elected .You need to be elected twice to get the full Pension .

Now add in if the Government give good bribes to some independents to support them then other Government TDs will leave the Government to Get goodies for their Voters .

As things stand both the Government and Opposition even in numbers so it only takes ONE government TD to jump ship or abstaine .I have 80 chances of that happening  and I also have the Two X Greens who both look like they will lose their seats to second candidate from SF in their Constituencies wanting to go out in a blaze of self righteous indignation .Lot of moving parts ken and not all priced in .


Think Farmers are tired of the Greens and if they get in to certain TDs ears they might convince one to Jump ship .government only need to give 14 days notice of a General Election .O Dowd in Louth could be tempted over the Lourdes Hospital Closures to go rogue .Leo sacked him from his junior Ministers job .

Thats the Form Book Kenneth .
"Ahfuck

Offline Belker

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Re: September Storms
« Reply #102 on: September 25, 2022, 10:05:21 am »
Fine ! Lash in to the poxy 25/1 offer.
PS, It's a 500/1 shot no-hoper !

You remind me of a film on Netflix John M, the staircase or something like that it was called with the bi US army guy accused of killing his wife.
The feds had the conclusion and built their case around the circumstances.

That is what you do, you get an idea in your head and with your 'Rose tinted glasses' on build a case around your presumption totally ignoring anything to the contrary.

Offline Belker

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Re: September Storms
« Reply #103 on: September 25, 2022, 10:18:33 am »
I understand your thinking, I once wore the 'Rose tinted glasses' way back in 1986, when I thought my fav team the Chicago bears were totally unbeatable and I had a Grand Ir punts on them to win the Superbowl, They didn't win it or even come close, and I never put those 'Glasses' on ever again !

Offline John m

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Re: September Storms
« Reply #104 on: September 25, 2022, 11:12:15 am »
Then there is the second issue .Leo to become Taoiseach for the Second time .Mick from Cork must resign before Leo can be ELECTED Taoiseach .Will ALL the FF or Greens vote for Him ?If he dosent get the numbers we have no Taoiseach ,No Taoiseach no Government . Unlucky 13 Kenneth thats the amount of weeks they need to survive !

My best ever Politics bet was £40 @100/1 with Terry Rogers Labour to win 30 seats or More back in the Eighties .And I pawned everything I owned Telly ,Stereo .Jewlery borrowed to bet 3/1 with Hacketts Labour wo get 20 or more seats in the same election .They Got 31 Doctor Bangee in Galway even won a seat .

Politics is more vicious that a Knackers Funeral and the Backstabbing is a way of life .

I understand the Economics of what is going on the only Rose Tinted Glasses are worn by this Government thinking that the Biggest renovation job in the Country in Ballsbridge being shelved is not a sign that the Big Tech bucks they rely on are drying up .Im thinking the Government at least some members would like to run away before they get the blame for the fuck up ask FF how that works out .
« Last Edit: September 25, 2022, 11:17:27 am by John m »
"Ahfuck

 


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