LEO IN FG PILLOW FIGHT ...
Last Wednesday week, Fine Gael held its normal weekly parliamentary party meeting via Zoom, as it has been doing throughout the pandemic.
As per usual, party leader Leo Varadkar gave an overview from his perspective as to current issues dominating the political agenda. After speaking for 30 minutes, Mr Varadkar shared his slot with his deputy leader Simon Coveney who, according to sources, “droned on” about Brexit for almost half an hour.
Then, for the first time since Varadkar became leader in 2017, he took some stick internally.
Former junior minister and Kilkenny TD John Paul Phelan spoke up and in no uncertain terms expressed his unhappiness at being made sit and listen to a lecture for an hour.
“It is the Fine Gael equivalent to a punishment beating,” he told the meeting to amused chuckles.
He accused his leader and deputy leader of “running down the clock” and said that because of Covid, face-time with party colleagues is limited, and felt what had happened was no way to treat the parliamentary party.
As is often in politics, such an intervention could be seen either as an isolated occurrence based on the frustration of the meeting, or in a wider context as reflective of a more substantial unease.
While what happened was described to me as a “straw in the wind", Mr Phelan’s ire was, according to several sources within the party, reflective of an increased angst within Fine Gael as to where the party finds itself.
According to several sources, this week’s meeting of the party saw further evidence of tetchiness and annoyance.
While there has been much talk about Fianna Fáil internal troubles, Fine Gael itself is in the midst of its own identity crisis, with many beginning to question their leader’s standing.
Many of the TDs I have spoken to in the past 10 days have shared Mr Phelan’s annoyance as to how they were treated at the meeting, but also at what they see as the malaise that has engulfed the party.
“We simply should not be in Government,” said one angry TD. "We should have gone into Opposition because what we were sold by Leo on going in has not materialised."
TDs insist they were told that with Fine Gael “not in the driving seat” in Government, Mr Varadkar, Mr Coveney, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe, and other heavy hitters would have more time to re-engage with the grassroots and rebuild the party after two successive heavy defeats in general elections.
That, to put it mildly, has not happened, and the party finds itself — primarily because of Covid-19 — in a holding pattern.
Having lost 26 seats in 2016 and a further 15 seats in 2020, Fine Gael under Mr Varadkar is at a low electoral ebb. And further to that, much of the sheen on the party gained during the first period of lockdown has more than worn off, as showed by a slide in Fine Gael’s opinion poll ratings.
There are also — for the first time — mounting questions about Mr Varadkar’s leadership and his decision-making.
Such an outburst from Mr Phelan was unheard of since Mr Varadkar took over from Enda Kenny in 2017. He successfully managed the transition without too many internal bumps and remained in full control of his party.
However, the election of last year changed all that.
In the minority government up to that point, Mr Varadkar’s Fine Gael held the lion’s share of ministerial posts, both at Cabinet and junior level, as well as a large share of committee chairmanships and other posts of command, with their financial stipends attached.
At the formation of the new Government last June, Mr Varadkar had to jettison a large number of his team to the backbenches. Some, like Eoghan Murphy, were willing to stand down without much fuss.
Others, though, are clearly not adjusting well to their reduced status.
Also, Mr Varadkar’s poor handling of the leaked document saga before Christmas has undoubtedly damaged his standing, not only within Government, but among his party colleagues also.
At the time, he admitted that he provided a copy of the IMO contract to Dr Maitiu Ó Tuathail and added that communicating the contract agreement "was not best practice".
However, he has maintained that there was nothing unlawful about sharing this information, despite questions from the Opposition about the timeline of events.
Despite his mea culpa and apologies, the impact of that saga continues to linger and several TDs and senators have voiced their opinion that Mr Varadkar’s standing is far more diminished now.
“Look it — we went into Government having lost an election,” said one TD. "He lost the election and has to accept that. On foot of that, he has no more goodies to give out, so people don’t have to be slavishly loyal to him. And with Covid, everyone is pissed off."
What has been striking in recent days is how many Fine Gael TDs have said that they fear their leader has lost his mojo.
Some have predicted that, notwithstanding Mr Varadkar’s expected return to the Taoiseach’s office in December 2022, whether he leads the party into the next election is “an open question”.
Speaking candidly, some simply do not think Mr Varadkar would have the stomach or appetite for a prolonged period in Opposition. By any standards, he has enjoyed a charmed existence since entering national politics in 2007. He has never been a backbencher.
In that context, the inevitable question about who would replace Mr Varadkar has come to the fore.
While Mr Coveney has been seen as the frontrunner given his victory among the grassroots in the leadership contest in 2017, it would appear a shift of opinion within the party is under way, and the post is no longer a certainty for the Cork South-Central stalwart.
Another whose fortunes have declined is Mr Donohoe, who has come in for considerable criticism for his overly conservative approach into the general election last year. “Paschal, as director of elections, has had to take the lion’s share of blame for the poor result, especially when you see how the monies have flowed since then,” one TD told me.
Simon Harris is increasingly popular among the parliamentary party and could be in the running to replace Mr Varadkar. Picture: PA
Simon Harris is increasingly popular among the parliamentary party and could be in the running to replace Mr Varadkar. Picture: PA
Despite a rocky period as health minister, Simon Harris is clearly increasingly popular among the parliamentary party, even among those who supported Mr Varadkar in the leadership contest.
Mr Harris was the sole Cabinet minister to back Mr Coveney, and it took Mr Coveney’s lobbying to save his post in Cabinet in 2017.
His perceived good handling of the pandemic last year before the changeover of government meant Mr Harris remained in Cabinet, albeit in the reduced position in the new Department of Higher Education.
But according to several TDs, Mr Harris has been active in meeting local groups and grassroots members while he also has been nurturing good contacts with the parliamentary party.
As one TD put it to me, he has been busy on the “ rubber-chicken circuit” made famous by Charlie Haughey in his wilderness years before his rise to become taoiseach.
Those who have spoken to me say Mr Harris’s communications skills appear more authentic than Mr Varadkar’s, and he has shown a greater deal of empathy for groups like those affected by the CervicalCheck scandal.
The grounds are shifting within Fine Gael which, like its leader, appears to have lost its way.
