Political bet

[John m]

Dublin By election prices are wrong .4/1 Gerry Hutch .He is a trillion to one more hope of the Virgin Mary being in the Epstein Files .The Bet is 5/2 Boylan she will lead after the First Count .Ennis will be second Hutch Could be third but I think Fourthh .Its all down to Transfers .Greens will transfer more to Shinners and PBP ..PBP will transfer more to Shinners Keep her well ahead .Stenson to Hutch .then FF to FG dont see more than 20% transfer between them Labour are going to have first real influence .Do they transfer heavy to Shinners or Social Dems probably SDs close the Gap last 3 Hutch 3rd .Ennis 2nd Boylan .1st .Where do the Hutch Transfers Go ? Thats the Question .Protest Vote might have to split about 60/40 to Soc Dems .But here is the bet .Sometime during the Count there will be near enough 1/1 on Ennis .Two horse Race .

 How anybody thinks Gerry Hutch has a 20% chance .By elections are different to General elections he only got 15% in the final count in the General Election you need to get nearer 50% in a By election .

Mary from the Navan Road will have cars picking up SF voters to bring them to vote .Its her Constituency she needs to deliver that seat or she could be heading for the Door before the General Election .

So bet is Boylan @5/2  with saver on Ennis in running .

[watty]

One of the newspapers was saying SF have gone from 30-something percent nationwide down to 20-something percent.  Maybe their time has passed them by and they're not transfer friendly.  But apparently MaryLou is great in person and a great local campaigner but there's been in-fighting.  Maybe Ennis from the Soc Dem has the bit between his teeth and he's more transfer-friendly among the general 'left.'  The newspapers have already tried to do a hatchet job on him. 

There's plenty of middle-class people (with jobs) in Dublin Central who would never vote SF.  You just have to look up North to see what happens when SF get their foot in the door.  Fukking place is collapsing - water, sewage, hospitals, schools - and they're blaming the Brits of course for not giving them enough money.

[watty]

FG still haven't knocked on my door but they put a leaflet in the door.  They're warning people not to vote for the other candidates because the others are not in power so "it would be a wasted vote".

FF to their credit (I guess) did knock on my door.

Daniel Ennis' people (Soc Dems) came around for the third time.  They must be quietly confident.

[Rat Catcher]

There's a lot to be said for knocking on doors. A lot of folk won't vote for any candidate that can't be arsed calling on them.

[John m]

Shrewd FF or FG voters would vote SF .Government going to lose probably both By elections .Shinners plus one more td wont make any difference but Soc Dems with one more could be disasterous .They could become power brokers upset the Rural Independents holding government togeather .FF could lose and win or lose and lose . If FF and FG stay at home there might not be enough transfers for Ennis Cant see many Hutch votes going to Soc Dems ..Gerry at 4/1 fucks up the market .Think you can back both the front runners and make a small profit in running .

[John m]

Watty the unknown unknown in this election and it might break shinners way  How many Government party voters are going to Give Ennis teir first prefrence because their candidate cannot win trying to keep him ahead of hutch .If Ennis does well on First count there might not be as many prefrences for him as people expect .The SD hold the Old Traitor Gregory Seat an anti establishment seat .So that is an Anti Establishment vote going to Hutch its not a SD vote more a SF transfer friendly vote .If there is a Lot of tactical Stop Gerry voting it might be reflected in First prefrences for Ennis not in transfers .I think he is the favourite bit not 1/3 .My betting if I was a bookie might be 4/6 Ennis 1/1 Boylan have what you like on the others . Turn out could be very low under 40% .Lower the turnout you would think favours SF they will get their vote out .

[watty]

This is why I don't gamble - I'd let my heart/biases over-rule my head.

Anyways, the polling card arrived today with a bunch of candidate ads.  Interesting approaches by SF and SocDem.  SF was a bit impersonal ihmo.  SF went with the corporate 'vote for the party' to 'beat the Govt' while Ennis (SD) sent with 'I was born in the neighbourhood and I want to make it better for me and my kids.'  SF included a photo of a N.I. MLA (Michelle O'Neill) while Ennis went with a photo of him and some kids playing games.  Would be interesting to know if either approach changed voter's minds?

[Belker]

Gardaí, regulators and Government departments are to examine "suspicious bets" made on the Polymarket platform, the Tánaiste said.

Simon Harris raised "grave concerns" around a "Wild West" of unregulated betting on the platform, as he said it would be prudent to examine if there was money laundering occurring.

His comments came after reports highlighted a million dollars worth of betting on the outcome of the Dublin Central bye-election on Friday, with hundreds of thousands of euro of that volume placed on Gerard Hutch not to win a seat.
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2026/0519/1574193-polymarket-tanaiste/

[John m]

Its hard to know Watty .Its a two horse race just thought Boylan is overpriced .Might be able to trade it for a small profit after first Count .

[watty]

A couple of teenagers in tracksuits came around last night giving out flyers for Hutch.  Looked like a 'Wanted' poster tbh.  I live in a posh estate (we have a resident's association) so I'd say half the estate rang Mountjoy Garda Station.  And the other half probably rang Mountjoy prison to see if any prisoners had gone missing!

And another flyer through the letterbox from Daniel Ennis today (SD) saying SF is on 21% and SD is on 18% so 'c'mon out and vote for us, please.'  Look at the size of the heads on the Ellis flyer 

[John m]

Shinners would probably need a 6% lead to hold on after first count .

[watty]

Dublin City Returning Officer notifies gardaí after power hose incident

The Dublin City Returning Officer said he has notified gardaí about the potential breach of the election laws.  The image and name of a bye-election candidate in Dublin Central was marked on pavements outside a number of polling stations in Dublin using a power hose.  Joe Burke said that when the issue was brought to his attention he notified gardaí, Dublin City Council and the candidate themselves.

... Dublin City Council said the practice is in breach of both litter legislation and electoral legislation which restricts the distance that candidates material can be displayed from a polling station.

Clever idea.  Worth the fine if it gets them elected to a TD's salary...

[watty]

Mr Hutch - https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2026/05/22/gardai-notified-over-gerry-hutch-stencilled-graffiti-near-polling-station/

[John m]

Just left the count .Ennis wins .Government need to cop on Hutch and Stenson both doing well one of them will take a seat in General election .Immigration now a General election Winning issue .Shinners need to move on Mary from the Navan Road .Once again Berty had in finger on the Issue .Mick From Cork is gone in the New Year . Gary Gannon will be pissed off two SD in the one Constituency .One of them will have to move .Wont get chance to trade me bet .

[watty]

Yep.  Good news for Ellis (SD) who put in the hard work but the SD's themselves?  2 TD's in 1 area - will one of them have to move?

Bad news for SF and MaryLou.  She had a rep for great campaigning and a nice person to boot but she couldn't get Boylan over the line.  Are SF capped at ~20% and will the 'other' left grouping overtake them?  Pearse Doherty is a good media performer - is he practicing his acceptance speech in the mirror?

'The Left' are having a good run but they'll have to convince people about their policies and not just shout 'we're not FF/FG' to get elected.

Very bad day for FF, even if it was a mid-term election.  (Edit: RTE are saying Fianna Fáil has lost its deposit over Dublin Central candidate John Stephens, who was excluded from the race after count two.)