Author Topic: Next Government?  (Read 844 times)

Online Rat Catcher

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Next Government?
« on: February 11, 2020, 12:59:35 AM »
Any opinions as to what we will end up with?

The numbers aren't there for a left wing coalition, at least not with a majority. FF (38) has the highest number of seats and, theoretically, could form a comfortable enough coalition either with FG (35) - including the gene pool independents from both sides would allow them choose any of the smaller groups for stability. Similarly, it could do the same with SF (37). FF/SF would undoubtedly be a strategic alliance rather than a meaningful attempt to implement any programme for Govt i.e. both parties would be primarily focussed on the best time to pull the rug from under the other. FF/FG would probably be a more grown up and risky alliance. They would have to share the benefits of the economic boom with the working classes. A very big ask?

Offline Bob Shillin

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Re: Next Government?
« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2020, 02:05:14 AM »
37 SF
12 Green
6   Labour
6   Soc Dem
5   Sol PBP
1   Aontu
14 Independant (maybe too many deals to make)

81 seats (Still 5 Independants left)

Left (ish) government. Despite what they say maybe the Shinners don't want power yet.
"Ring the bells that still can ring, forget your perfect offering, there is a crack in everything, that's how the light gets in". LC

Offline Belker

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Re: Next Government?
« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2020, 03:58:13 AM »
My prediction fer the next government would be a FF/SF coalition, taking just 5 Independents on board to make up the magic 80 number.
Micheal did a 'Mo Johnson' number as soon as the polls closed and he saw the exit polls, Leo to be fair to him stuck to his guns.

Offline john m

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Re: Next Government?
« Reply #3 on: February 11, 2020, 04:13:13 AM »
https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/leprechaun-politics-is-alive-as-we-ignore-long-term-plans-in-favour-of-jam-today-38945713.html


BEST ASSESSMENT OF IRISH POLITICS

The only way of knowing whether the lessons of an economic crash have been learned is when the next downturn comes along. You can never really tell when things are on the up again whether politicians have really understood the calamity of mistakes they have made in the past.

This General Election campaign provided clear evidence that little has been learned by over-promising politicians who still believe voters can be bought.

Following the disaster of the last crash, there was so much thumping of chests among the political class that it seemed the same mistakes could never be repeated.

Never again would they rely on Exchequer revenues from one source - property the last time, corporation tax receipts this time. Never again would they allow spending on infrastructure projects to get out of control - roads the last time, the National Children's Hospital and rural broadband this time.

Never again would they let house prices become so excessive they had to award public sector pay increases so teachers, gardaí and nurses could afford a roof over their head.

Last time, instead of tackling runaway house prices they awarded public sector pay rises. This time, runaway rents and housing shortages have undermined disposable income for so many people that they need pay increases just to stand still.

But perhaps even more importantly, the lesson learned was not to run the economy and the Exchequer like there was no tomorrow, but to replace short-term thinking with long-term planning.

Yet, once again, long-term planning has been thrown out in the heat of election promises. We have come out of a massive and deeply damaging recession with the fastest economic growth rates in the EU. We have enjoyed a multi-billion-euro bonanza from corporation tax receipts. Yet, we cannot seem to think long term.

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The housing crisis was entirely predictable years ago, if anyone looked at our population projections for 2020 or 2025.

The Exchequer only reported a budget surplus in the last two years despite a phenomenal six- or seven-year run of good luck, rising employment, financial windfalls, low interest rates and an economic boom.

None of our €200bn national debt has been paid down during this bonanza. Few fundamental reforms have been achieved such as restructuring the health service, planning for future pensions deficits or fixing the totally dysfunctional housing market.


Fianna Fáil paid a political price for its failure in the boom and decided to come into this election with the veneer of a newfound fiscal responsibility.

Fine Gael claims it can be trusted on the economy and the Exchequer finances.

The simple truth is that we have signed up to a eurozone fiscal pact which means no government will be allowed to run up big budget deficits. The EU has shrunk the punchbowl, but our politicians seem determined to empty whatever is there all the same.

No sooner had the election gun been fired when the promises and auction politics of the past arrived thick and fast.

It started with the age at which the old-age pension would be paid in the future. In a matter of days, the political classes shredded the limited reform of our unaffordable State pension system that had been made.

Fianna Fáil said the move towards raising the pension age to 67 would be reviewed. Fine Gael joined the back-track. Fianna Fáil's spokesman on pensions, Willie O'Dea, was overtaken in the back-track by the party leader when he appeared to pre-empt the outcome of his own review by telling Sean O'Rourke on RTÉ Radio One that 67 won't happen.

Labour's moral high ground - refusing to do business with anyone unless they held back on increasing the State pension age to 67 - didn't really wash either, given the party leader Brendan Howlin sat in the government that introduced it.

Sinn Féin went further than the others in its election package by promising increased spending and tax cuts totalling over €22bn up to 2025.

Ireland has one of the most open trading economies in the world.

That is why things really heat up in good times and cool down so rapidly when there is a wider downturn. Perhaps that is true.

But surely our political classes can finally grow up and realise they must plan properly for both the ups and the downs.

Proportional representation is a more democratic system than 'first past the post'. However, it can propagate weaker governments.

Weak politicians believe that to come through an election they have to provide jam today, jam tomorrow and don't worry about next week.

Therefore, election manifestos take only the most benign economic projections. They tend to dish out specific eye-catching measures that are not fully costed.

They do not spell out different scenarios of how much money they might have available if things don't go to plan. There is always only one set of assumptions about the economic future contained in manifestos. They never spell out how much it will cost just to keep things as they are, given our expanding and ageing population.

Of course, politicians know it is easy to put something in a manifesto and it doesn't mean it will make it into a negotiated programme for government.

And not everything in a programme for government will actually be done. Therefore, manifestos can have a pretty loose relationship with the truth or reality.

If politicians know this, so too do the voters. So why cheapen the entire political process with a fantasy wish list that everybody knows isn't real?

We have been accused of 'leprechaun economics' in recent years. 'Leprechaun politics' is alive and well too.

Irish Independent


Offline john m

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Re: Next Government?
« Reply #4 on: February 11, 2020, 04:28:07 AM »
Only REAL option is Government of National Recovery with the best person from whatever party getting the right Job . Shinners are Marxists their economics wont be tolerated by Europe or the Stock Markets or International lenders .At the moment the Irish government can borrow money to run the country for about .2 of a % if the Shinners get power our borrowing rate will jump that will cost us a few BILLION in extra interest .I keep refering to our Suicide Note the Fiscal Treaty that we voted into our constitution .Whats not being mentioned is 3 out of every 4 voters did NOT vote for the shinners so they have absolutely no mandate to destroy the country .5/2 another general election this year looks like the value political bet unless Mick Martin puts himself above country and goes into coalition with the Shinners .I dont think the Shinners can get a budget passed and under our constitution that means an instant General election .This is the most dangerous time for our democracy if shinners are excluded you could have major protests but if you have shinners leading a government the economy will collapse .

Offline The Liffey Lip

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Re: Next Government?
« Reply #5 on: February 11, 2020, 07:35:05 AM »
John, a statute of Marx was unveiled at the EU parliament last yr...I posted about it........the E.U. is Marxist in its ideals.... Refined Socialism for the low-life and Capitalism for the Elite. Jean-Claude Juncker was filmed kneeling before the statute.

Offline The Liffey Lip

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Re: Next Government?
« Reply #6 on: February 11, 2020, 08:03:36 AM »
Here he is praising the communist shit-stirrer...


Online dalymount

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Re: Next Government?
« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2020, 08:53:08 AM »
Anyone else heard the rumour that the shinners are purposly dragging their heels in the hope of another election being called very quickly so they can run more candidate's next time ?

Offline Shallowhal

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Re: Next Government?
« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2020, 12:03:46 PM »
No.

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Re: Next Government?
« Reply #9 on: February 11, 2020, 02:48:11 PM »
If that is the strategy do you think the likes of Ellis and Cullinane will be on the next ballot paper, DM?

Offline Shallowhal

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Re: Next Government?
« Reply #10 on: February 11, 2020, 02:52:01 PM »
They will.

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Re: Next Government?
« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2020, 02:54:01 PM »
Why? Surely they're surplus to requirements when an old woman can top the poll after spending most of the campaign on holiday. A couple of pretty little things on the posters would double their vote.

Online dalymount

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Re: Next Government?
« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2020, 03:07:30 PM »
Well I dont know if it is the strategy or not,but it was put to Mary Lo yesterday ,and she said that she had heard it being said heraself.I dont know if they would be on the ballot paper or not,but the clinched fisted brigade do tend to respond to the type of stuff the came out with

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Re: Next Government?
« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2020, 03:11:51 PM »
They'd be mad not to be thinking about the next election regardless of what may happen in the interim. They have momentum, that might not last forever.

Online dalymount

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Re: Next Government?
« Reply #14 on: February 11, 2020, 03:16:51 PM »
There has always been a suspicion that thet dont REALLY want to be in government because they would have to actually implement their policies then whi knows ?

 


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