Author Topic: Irish Presidential Bet  (Read 14286 times)

Offline watty

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Re: Irish Presidential Bet
« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2023, 05:29:10 pm »
When I wrote my post, I could only think of Rory O'Neill (aka Panty Bliss) but he probably wouldn't get much traction outside of Dublin even though he's from Mayo.  He did that 'Noble Speech' in the Abbey and, according to Wiki, he donated the dress from that night to the National Museum of Ireland.  He's done a bit of TV (incl the Eurovision) as well.  Are there any odds on him?

One person who didn't fit my requirements but could be an outside bet was Mairead McGuinness.  She's inoffensive.  She's been giving radio interviews regularly over the past while & she comes across as quite considered.  Also, her EU Commission job (not MEP) finishes in 2024 and she turns 65 next year ('retire' back to the homeland?).   What's the odds on her I wonder?
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Offline John m

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Re: Irish Presidential Bet
« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2023, 06:02:09 pm »
Watty she is 4/1 but has NO CHANCE .FG will get about 20% of the vote they need 50% SF will get about 30% nobody voting SF will transfer to FG so they cannot win the office .Little Mickey won it because he was transfer friendly and FF had no candidate .Problem for Mc Guinness is she is Endas lovechild .If Leo gets fucked out and I think FG will drop him after a disasterous Local Election Campaign then Francis Fitzgerald comes into play Leo fucked her over last time but she is good mates with Harris . SF have the same Problem as FG where do they get the transfers to get over the line ..

  You saw the personal attacks the last election who would want that scrutiny .Bertie has a Neck like a Jockies and everything about him is already out there .
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Offline Bubba Ho-Tep

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Re: Irish Presidential Bet
« Reply #17 on: June 26, 2023, 08:16:37 pm »
Has Bertie got a burd?

Offline silverbullet

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Offline Belker

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Re: Irish Presidential Bet
« Reply #19 on: June 27, 2023, 07:33:20 am »
When I wrote my post, I could only think of Rory O'Neill (aka Panty Bliss) but he probably wouldn't get much traction outside of Dublin even though he's from Mayo.  He did that 'Noble Speech' in the Abbey and, according to Wiki, he donated the dress from that night to the National Museum of Ireland.  He's done a bit of TV (incl the Eurovision) as well.  Are there any odds on him?

One person who didn't fit my requirements but could be an outside bet was Mairead McGuinness.  She's inoffensive.  She's been giving radio interviews regularly over the past while & she comes across as quite considered.  Also, her EU Commission job (not MEP) finishes in 2024 and she turns 65 next year ('retire' back to the homeland?).   What's the odds on her I wonder?
Panty Bliss is 50/1.
Mc Guinness is the 4/1 fav.

See full odds here;
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/irish-politics/irish-presidential-election/winner

Offline watty

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Re: Irish Presidential Bet
« Reply #20 on: June 27, 2023, 05:27:17 pm »
@ Belker - thanks!  Apart for the lotto, never got into gambling.  Ha!  that's gas that Mairead McGuiness is 1st.  Can't see how Fergus Finlay is 2nd though.  He's too non-descript.

Hmmm.  David Norris at 50/1.  We had 2 lawyers before Micheal D, who is an academic poet, I guess.  Could we elect another academic like Norris to make it 2 academics in a row.  It would be funny to watch him 'press the flesh' in deepest darkest rural Ireland.
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Offline John m

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Re: Irish Presidential Bet
« Reply #21 on: June 27, 2023, 05:50:40 pm »
Norris was Favourite 12 years ago until his past caught up with him .He made some comment years ago about older Gay men helping younger men to enjoy the Gay Life .The Problem anybody wanting to run will have is getting nominated .The Big parties will nominate then any non party Tds or Senators might nominate an independent they need 20 members of the Oireachtas .Norris and Other Independents were able to get Nominated last time because FF did not run a candidate .

Finley will look to get nominated but Labour do not have enough TDs to Nominate him so there will be competition among the Lefties for the Nomination .Thats why I say only 4 but probably only three .FF only have two choices Bertie or possible Andrews but he has a good gig already .shinners cannot run in the Shadow of a Gunman so will look for a celebrity candidate .FG will fight among themselves for the Gig .Fitzgerald,Mc Guinness or Sean Kelly x GAA president .It costs about 1.2 Million to run a campaign .Dont think Political Parties will want to spend that sort of cash the year before or just after a General Election .That is why I say Shinners might not run a candidate and Labour and the Left wont have the money either .In a head to head .Who beats Bertie ? FG might not really want to run either last time they got such a low vote they lost their deposit and got no election expenses ..Remember Irish President is only a ceremonial Role .
"Ahfuck

Offline silverbullet

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Re: Irish Presidential Bet
« Reply #22 on: June 27, 2023, 07:59:06 pm »
Norris was Favourite 12 years ago until his past caught up with him .He made some comment years ago about older Gay men helping younger men to enjoy the Gay Life .The Problem anybody wanting to run will have is getting nominated .The Big parties will nominate then any non party Tds or Senators might nominate an independent they need 20 members of the Oireachtas .Norris and Other Independents were able to get Nominated last time because FF did not run a candidate .

Finley will look to get nominated but Labour do not have enough TDs to Nominate him so there will be competition among the Lefties for the Nomination .Thats why I say only 4 but probably only three .FF only have two choices Bertie or possible Andrews but he has a good gig already .shinners cannot run in the Shadow of a Gunman so will look for a celebrity candidate .FG will fight among themselves for the Gig .Fitzgerald,Mc Guinness or Sean Kelly x GAA president .It costs about 1.2 Million to run a campaign .Dont think Political Parties will want to spend that sort of cash the year before or just after a General Election .That is why I say Shinners might not run a candidate and Labour and the Left wont have the money either .In a head to head .Who beats Bertie ? FG might not really want to run either last time they got such a low vote they lost their deposit and got no election expenses ..Remember Irish President is only a ceremonial Role .
If the electorate is OK with an alleged wife-beater and tax dodger, they'll have no problem with a gay man.

It's who he was associated with caused his downfall.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2021143/Favourite-Irish-presidency-David-Norriss-ex-partner-raped-Palestinian-boy-15.html

Offline John m

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Re: Irish Presidential Bet
« Reply #23 on: June 27, 2023, 08:09:55 pm »
Silver he gave an interview to McGill years earlier where he said he agreed with .Pederasty or paederasty (US: /ˈpɛdəræsti/ or UK: /ˈpiːdəræsti/) is a sexual relationship between an adult man and a boy.[1] The term pederasty is primarily used to refer to historical practices of certain cultures, particularly ancient Greece and ancient Rome.

In most countries today, the local age of consent determines whether a person is considered legally competent to consent to sexual acts, and whether such contact is child sexual abuse or statutory rape. An adult engaging in sexual activity with a minor may be considered abusive by medical authorities for a variety of reasons, including the age of the minor, the likelihood of the minor developing one or more mental disorders, such as post-traumatic stress disorder, physical injury to the minor, and the minor's propensity for further victimization in adulthood.


The logic being as a Gay man you cannot breed more Gay men but you can convert younger men .That is the only way that Homosexuality can survive ..After the last Presidential Election I doubt anybody will want their Dirty washing hung in Public remember the Election 20 years ago Adi Roach got slaughtered .Bertie has his laundry already done .Shinners could go for John Finucan but he wont get transfers .If I was going for a Huge outsider Joe Brolly could be the sF Candidate .
"Ahfuck

Offline John m

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Re: Irish Presidential Bet
« Reply #24 on: April 14, 2024, 12:02:43 pm »
Bertie Ahern @12/1 with Paddy Power to be next President .Explained ?to be president you must get 50% plus 1 vote of all votes cast .SF could get 30% but where can they get the other 20% not from FG who hate them not from the Left as they will already have that vote in their 30% so in reality SF Cannot win .

FG worse problem than SF as they will only get about 20% of the Vote SF voters will not transfer to them plus Mc Guinness is the preferred FG candidate at the Moment .If Leo is gone and I think he will be fucked out after the local elections and Harris id the Leader then Francis Fitzgerald could be the FG candidate both unelectable cannot get to 50% .

Labour votes will be gobbled up by SF so they cannot realistically expect to get a President elected .

It is unlikely that any Independent will get enough County Councils to give them the Nomination .

So Bertie .FF have nobody else who can appeal to the whole country Probably Barry Andrews but nobody else .FF will get about 20% of the vote .SF would transfer to Gerry Adams old mate Bertie Aherne Adams will sort of tell them Bertie can be trusted .FG will also transfer to Berty to stop SF getting the Gig .Could also be other election issues at play .If SF support Bertie it might encourage FF to go into Coalition with them after the General election as a united group of Republican Parties .If Bertie gets the FF Nomination he will be favourite about 5/4 to get the gig .

Bertie @ 12/1 will be my next long term bet .


He is BACK FF ard Feish yesterday and Berty grabs the headlines get on @12/1 .
"Ahfuck

Offline Belker

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Re: Irish Presidential Bet
« Reply #25 on: April 15, 2024, 12:08:17 am »
Why bet on Bertie @ 12/1 with PP ?, when Ladbrokes are offering him @ 16/1 ??

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/international/politics-ireland/president-after-michael-d-higgins/234653629/all-markets

I still see no value in the bet as I reckon he does not want the gig.

Offline Rat Catcher

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Re: Irish Presidential Bet
« Reply #26 on: April 15, 2024, 11:45:11 am »
I reckon he does, Ken... mainly down to how he loves mentioning his position on the President's Advisory Council or whatever it's official title is.

Could be a precondition of a Shin F / F Fail coalition.
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Offline silverbullet

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Re: Irish Presidential Bet
« Reply #27 on: April 15, 2024, 02:10:07 pm »
I reckon he does, Ken... mainly down to how he loves mentioning his position on the President's Advisory Council or whatever it's official title is.

Could be a precondition of a Shin F / F Fail coalition.
Migrant?

Offline Belker

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Re: Irish Presidential Bet
« Reply #28 on: April 17, 2024, 04:47:35 am »
I reckon he does, Ken... mainly down to how he loves mentioning his position on the President's Advisory Council or whatever it's official title is.

Could be a precondition of a Shin F / F Fail coalition.
Did you take a bit of the 16/1 with Ladbokes ?

Offline silverbullet

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Re: Irish Presidential Bet
« Reply #29 on: April 17, 2024, 05:36:06 pm »
I'll have a fiver on Norris in Ladblokes! 8)

 


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