Irish Presidential Bet

[John m]

Bertie Ahern @12/1 with Paddy Power to be next President .Explained ?to be president you must get 50% plus 1 vote of all votes cast .SF could get 30% but where can they get the other 20% not from FG who hate them not from the Left as they will already have that vote in their 30% so in reality SF Cannot win .

FG worse problem than SF as they will only get about 20% of the Vote SF voters will not transfer to them plus Mc Guinness is the preferred FG candidate at the Moment .If Leo is gone and I think he will be fucked out after the local elections and Harris id the Leader then Francis Fitzgerald could be the FG candidate both unelectable cannot get to 50% .

Labour votes will be gobbled up by SF so they cannot realistically expect to get a President elected .

It is unlikely that any Independent will get enough County Councils to give them the Nomination .

So Bertie .FF have nobody else who can appeal to the whole country Probably Barry Andrews but nobody else .FF will get about 20% of the vote .SF would transfer to Gerry Adams old mate Bertie Aherne Adams will sort of tell them Bertie can be trusted .FG will also transfer to Berty to stop SF getting the Gig .Could also be other election issues at play .If SF support Bertie it might encourage FF to go into Coalition with them after the General election as a united group of Republican Parties .If Bertie gets the FF Nomination he will be favourite about 5/4 to get the gig .

Bertie @ 12/1 will be my next long term bet .

[silverbullet]

His past will come to haunt him. Things like spousal abuse allegations, no bank account, no accountancy qualifications, rat in the anorak and a fortune on make up.
You couldn't make him up.
He's our Berlusconi.

Ahern defends €480 weekly make-up bill
Taoiseach Bertie Ahern today defended the cost of make-up to prepare himself for the Dáil's TV cameras.
Wed May 24 2006 - 01:00

Taoiseach Bertie Ahern today defended the cost of make-up to prepare himself for the Dáil's TV cameras.

Green Party TD John Gormley who claimed that Mr Ahern was spending €480 a week on his personal vanity, accused him of decadence and dubbed him the 'Queen of Drumcondra.'

Mr Ahern said that it had been the practice of all taoisigh to wear make-up since the televising of Dail proceedings began in 1990. "I make the normal preparations that are standard for all those who participate in television programmes," he said.

He added that the pay for the make-up staff was in line with Siptu rates.

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But Mr Gormley said: "Taoiseach, how do you expect the taxpayer, many of whom are lying on trolleys, to pay this exorbitant sum for your vanity?

"It's extraordinary that you spend more money on make-up than any of the ladies in the Cabinet. What sort of priorities do you have when you're heading around like the Queen of Drumcondra.

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"On the 80th anniversary of the founding of Fianna Fáil, what would your founder Eamon de Valera say about a Taoiseach who spends hundreds of euro every week on make-up?"

He asked if Mr Ahern should be called the L'Oreal Taoiseach "because he is worth it".

But Mr Ahern replied: "When Deputy Gormley is Taoiseach some day he will find in the Taoiseach's department that there is a service provide by two people, two days a week.

"They're paid the Siptu rates for the job. I don't think that they should be fired to satisfy you."

He added: "I understand that when you go to RTÉ, that you carefully go to the make-up room. You have never been known not to use make-up."

Mr Gormley then asked if it was too much trouble to apply the make-up himself.


"The sum of €480 a week is extraordinary when we have people on trolleys. It amounts to nothing more than decadence," the Dublin South East TD added.

He still looked like a potato.

[John m]

Dont think it will matter Silver .Its been out there years nobody gives a fuck .."Ah Jasus when I was Teashock yis had gaffs and low interest rates and I brung peace and jobs to the Country "Its a Political appointment who else is there ?Enda? Leo? Eamo the Younger or Eamo the Cabbage .Gay Byrnes Ghost .There really isint a lot of choice .

[Shallow Hal]

Short memories in this country....Bertie be a shoo in.

[silverbullet]

Dont think it will matter Silver .Its been out there years nobody gives a fuck .."Ah Jasus when I was Teashock yis had gaffs and low interest rates and I brung peace and jobs to the Country "Its a Political appointment who else is there ?Enda? Leo? Eamo the Younger or Eamo the Cabbage .Gay Byrnes Ghost .There really isint a lot of choice .

Who was it said of Mary Robinson "If you want to shut a woman up in Ireland, make her President"?

I predict another woman.

[John m]

Silver here is my thinking .Rainbow Flags ,Grettas ,Bikelanes ,Homeless, Imigrants ,Turfcutters ,Farmers , " Do you remember ?Will I ever Forget ?I think people are tired of rapid change and will see Bertie as a throwback to better times .I cannot see a Woman .Robinson was a Crusader .Mc Aleese was anointed as FF Candidate .Mirriam O Callaghan is establishment RTE .No outstanding Women Candidates .I think its Berties to Lose .Its a poor Group of Potential Candidates .Four Horse Race ?
Bertie FF
Mc Guinness FG
NO labour candidate (they dont have enough votes to nominate )so agreed left candidate
SF Celebrity non SF candidate GAA manager or something like that .

Could even be a two hander with SF deciding to endorse Bertie .Remember the Bigger Prize SF after the General election will need a mudgard for their arse in Coalition FF would be ideal .Think about the meetings in the Cordite Rooms in Armalite Towers SF are within touching distance of power but still miles away .Sacrificing the Lease on a detached gaff in the Park would be an acceptable price .

[watty]

Thing about Bertie is he's too old school.  He's from the last century, ffs.  Half the people who do remember him hate him and the other half might begrudgingly vote for him.  He's a nobody to the current Insta/TikTok generation.

It would have to be somebody with a Twitter account, preferably gay or transgender, and who's never insulted anyone (trendy).  After Leo (who'll head to Europe), who's the next biggest gay personality in Ireland?

[Bob Shillin]

Thing about Bertie is he's too old school.  He's from the last century, ffs.  Half the people who do remember him hate him and the other half might begrudgingly vote for him.  He's a nobody to the current Insta/TikTok generation.

It would have to be somebody with a Twitter account, preferably gay or transgender, and who's never insulted anyone (trendy).  After Leo (who'll head to Europe), who's the next biggest gay personality in Ireland?

El Presidente.

[Belker]

Bertie Ahern @12/1 with Paddy Power to be next President .Explained ?to be president you must get 50% plus 1 vote of all votes cast .SF could get 30% but where can they get the other 20% not from FG who hate them not from the Left as they will already have that vote in their 30% so in reality SF Cannot win .

FG worse problem than SF as they will only get about 20% of the Vote SF voters will not transfer to them plus Mc Guinness is the preferred FG candidate at the Moment .If Leo is gone and I think he will be fucked out after the local elections and Harris id the Leader then Francis Fitzgerald could be the FG candidate both unelectable cannot get to 50% .

Labour votes will be gobbled up by SF so they cannot realistically expect to get a President elected .

It is unlikely that any Independent will get enough County Councils to give them the Nomination .

So Bertie .FF have nobody else who can appeal to the whole country Probably Barry Andrews but nobody else .FF will get about 20% of the vote .SF would transfer to Gerry Adams old mate Bertie Aherne Adams will sort of tell them Bertie can be trusted .FG will also transfer to Berty to stop SF getting the Gig .Could also be other election issues at play .If SF support Bertie it might encourage FF to go into Coalition with them after the General election as a united group of Republican Parties .If Bertie gets the FF Nomination he will be favourite about 5/4 to get the gig .

Bertie @ 12/1 will be my next long term bet .

Total Bullshite theory as have been on all your Irish and UK General Election predicaments over the last few years which you made similar cases fer and which all lost !

Take your time this time, I personally don't think he will run, as he just does not want the gig.

If he starts to shorten in price that will be a good sign that his mates know he will run.
If he drifts in price, forget about it, he ain't running.

Quite likely that PP/Spoilsports have a few "No Lose" accounts with a few political experts, possibly even politicians.

Watch the market.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/irish-politics/irish-presidential-election/winner

[silverbullet]

Thing about Bertie is he's too old school.  He's from the last century, ffs.  Half the people who do remember him hate him and the other half might begrudgingly vote for him.  He's a nobody to the current Insta/TikTok generation.

It would have to be somebody with a Twitter account, preferably gay or transgender, and who's never insulted anyone (trendy).  After Leo (who'll head to Europe), who's the next biggest gay personality in Ireland?

Fixed yer post:
Thing about Bertie is he's too old school.  He's from the last century, ffs.  Half the people who do remember him hate him and the other half might begrudgingly vote for him.  He's a nobody to the current Insta/TikTok generation.

It would have to be somebody with a Twitter account, preferably gay or transgender, and who's never insulted anyone (trendy).  After Leo (who'll give head to Europe), who's the next biggest gay personality in Ireland?

[Belker]

I doubt Bertie will run fer a lot of reasons;

I reckon he is a 'Slippers and Cardigan' man at home and enjoys his privacy.

I doubt that he is short a of a few quid.

He has a somewhat chequered political past, which I personally think is a load of rubbish about a few grand over a telephone bill, but the Pink n Fluffies had a field day with it.

He mentioned domestic abuse in his biography which as he is a seperated man, some jumped to the conclusion that he was a wife-beater, he wasn't.
But he knows in todays social media crazy world those allegations will follow him in to the Aras.

I really doubt that Bertie would fancy living in the Aras Goldfish bowl with the press just looking to 'Get him' fer anything at all.
I reckon himself and Celia are happy out where they are, a few pints with the lads when he feels like it, never misses a Dub match I hear ? Hols when they want and very little interest in rubbing shoulders with international dignitaries talking bullshite to please the cameras.

The only plauasble reason I can think of fer Bertie to run were if Dosh was low, which I doubt ?

[John m]

You are leaving out the most important thing Ken EGO /Contrition .If Berty can get the Nomination he will feel vindicated .Berties sins are out in Public so wont really matter .Lowery who was accused of skulduggery with Phone Licences still gets one of the top votes in the Country .The Irish love a Rogue .

[Belker]

You are leaving out the most important thing Ken EGO /Contrition .If Berty can get the Nomination he will feel vindicated .Berties sins are out in Public so wont really matter .Lowery who was accused of skulduggery with Phone Licences still gets one of the top votes in the Country .The Irish love a Rogue .

What is an EGO /Contrition ?
Actually don't answer that, I don't want to know.

The most important thing John M is that HE DOESEN'T WANT THE GIG !!

[Belker]

Most likely the next president will not be a Straight real Irish White woman, because that has been done to death.
Nor will it be a Straight White real Irish male, again been way too many of them.

I predict the next Irish President to be either a 'Pillow-biter', a 'Muff-Tucker', somebody new Irish with darker skin, or a Trans-gender yoke, maybe even a Special needs retard, or 'God Forbid' a knacker, or a combination of any of the above.

[John m]

Most likely the next president will not be a Straight real Irish White woman, because that has been done to death.
Nor will it be a Straight White real Irish male, again been way too many of them.

I predict the next Irish President to be either a 'Pillow-biter', a 'Muff-Tucker', somebody new Irish with darker skin, or a Trans-gender yoke, maybe even a Special needs retard, or 'God Forbid' a knacker, or a combination of any of the above.

The most Vile ignorant post ever posted on this forum .If we have reached this low its probably time to close this thing down .