As Ken notes there are many variables. However, insurance firms never reveal formulae used to dream up quotes, they always say quotes are based on individual circumstances hence they may differ wildly even in circumstances that appear quite similar. In reality you will have to wait until you get your quote but there are a few factors we can ascertain from various drivers' experiences.
The premium will be calculated as a base figure + x% loading for claims + y% loading for penalty points - z% NCD. Loading % (x and to a lesser extent y) vary depending on "circumstances" but it seems that a much higher % will apply to x if you have NCD protection or if step back NCD applies, essentially the % used will negate any perceived advantage attached to such "protections" - may seem fraudulent but it's all in accordance with the T&Cs attached to the policy.
Whether they have you by the testicles or not depends on the amount of the claim. Different firms have different limits for claims in the preceding 3/5 years for new quotes. Always try to shop around, all they can say is no.
As DM notes, if there's no personal injuries and you can reasonably conclude that none will materialise before the Statute of Limitations expires it could make sense to settle the claim yourself. Most insurance firms (probably all?) will afford you the opportunity to repay settled claims so you can assess the net cost/benefit when you receive your renewal notice/quote. This might seem like a strange or foolish thing to do given that you've already handed the thieving bastards four figures to for indemnity but, in reality, what you get for the small fortune is a worthless chit. In the event of a claim they'll get the whole lot back from you with interest one way or the other should you wish to continue trading.