Author Topic: smart arse bet  (Read 1799 times)

Offline john m

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smart arse bet
« on: January 09, 2019, 11:33:06 PM »
Here is a smartarse bet if you fancy it .Will there be a hard border in 2019 ..The betting is 1/10 May will lose the vote on her deal ,if that happens then the UK leave on 29th of March that is already voted on. Powers are betting 7/1 Hard Border.Border  is defined as physical customs/identity checkpoints to be operational along the land border between The Republic and Northern Ireland. EU or UK must confirm before settlement. .If the UK crash out then the terms of business are WTO this WILL require a Border .My mate has quoted to wire up portacabins in Monaghan for Revenue .That clearly meets powers definition of physical customs /identity /checkpoints .So if you think the brits will crash out then 7/1 a hard border is great value .If the do crash out then there is no transition period Customs and barriers go into action at midnight on 30th .Even if the customs drive around doing random checkpoints that meets powers definition of hard border its dosent need barricades or barriers to qualify .

Offline The Liffey Lip

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Re: smart arse bet
« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2019, 07:59:56 AM »
There's a cat among the pigeons..........

Offline The Liffey Lip

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Online Shallowhal

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Re: smart arse bet
« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2019, 01:36:30 PM »
There's a cat among the pigeons..........

Bros?

Offline john m

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Re: smart arse bet
« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2019, 02:01:14 PM »
Helps to put up the link!!!!!!!!!!!

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/corbyn-general-election-most-practical-way-to-break-brexit-deadlock-896718.html

Turkeys dont vote for general elections .DUP wont support the shinner Appologist Corbyn so nochance of a vote of confidence being won .

Read Powers definition if there are even mobile Customs checks that qualifies under their definition .Its 1/10 Mays Deal fails if that happens then Parliament has already voted they leave on 29th .If that happens then at Midnight WTO rules apply and Customs checks automatically go into action .Effectivly you are getting 7/1 about something that will happen if the 1/10 shot happens .Effectivly you are getting paid 70 times over value for the same bet .

Offline The Liffey Lip

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Re: smart arse bet
« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2019, 02:37:59 PM »
Stats are for actuaries, John.... Freddie Starr ate my hamster..............
« Last Edit: January 10, 2019, 02:44:51 PM by The Liffey Lip »

Offline The Liffey Lip

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Re: smart arse bet
« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2019, 02:52:49 PM »
There's a cat among the pigeons..........

Bros?

Very Good........when will I, will I start shaving?

Offline john m

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Re: smart arse bet
« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2019, 03:14:06 PM »
Here is the Backstop conundrum .The Gay Foreigner and his European whoremasters say .The backstop is there to prevent a Hard border between Ireland and Norn Eireann but by default a No deal Brexit means at Midnight on the 29th if the UK drop out then there is an automatic customs border .between Ireland and Norn Eireann .Now both the Gay Foreigner and the Euro Gastappo say they dont want a border .So how do they prevent a border if the UK crash out when I say Crash out I mean decide to exercise their democratic right to leave .How long before the Gay Foreigner is seen for the retard he really is .

Offline Belker

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Re: smart arse bet
« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2019, 08:45:16 AM »
I see your point John and it is a good point, but as betting goes it is as Ropey as Fook, as in there is a lot of intricacies in the betting rules and regulations, anyway PP will most likely only take a Single Euro bet on this market, so don't be blowing all your Man City 9-0 money too fast !

Offline john m

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Re: smart arse bet
« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2019, 09:44:56 AM »
Ken when you cut through the bull shit ,its simple .Britain are leaving there are only two ways to leave .With a deal or without a deal .If there is a deal they have two years to finalise the arrangement if they dont then they dont crash out they exercise their democratic right to leave and do so under World Trade Organisation terms and conditions and that means customs checks .When the Gay Foreigner and Tessy say no hard border they only mean no permanent infrastructire .and thats not Paddy Powers interpretation .Its now 1/33 Tessys deal fails so they leave with no deal .Im betting on no barriers but both Ireland and the UK announcing customs checks .Here is Paddys definition (physical customs/identity checkpoints to be operational along the land border between The Republic and Northern Ireland. EU or UK must confirm before settlement. )

Offline Belker

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Re: smart arse bet
« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2019, 10:50:26 AM »
It's a Quagmire John, what exactly is the difference between "Customs check's" and "Physical customs/Identity checkpoints" ?
Either way PP won't accept anything over a Fiver on that market, so you are only wasting your time.

Offline john m

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Re: smart arse bet
« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2019, 11:08:23 AM »
Powers laying a new bet 6/1 Britain leave without a deal in March .Has to be worth a few ton .WHY Tessy says britain are leaving .The papers are all suggesting second referendum or new deal but two things that wont or cannot change .No matter what deal there will be a backstop so if she goes for that then the DUP bring her government down so they drop out automatically as that is what Parliament voted for leave on March 29th .

 The second thing is European elections in May have to go ahead .The writ for those elections is already posted with extra seats for countries to make up for the loss of British Members .So the only way those elections will be canceled is if Britain decide to remain .

So you are now getting 6/1 that Britain leave as there is really no chance of a deal without the DUP collapsing Mays Government and she wont do that .

Offline Belker

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Re: smart arse bet
« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2019, 11:37:37 AM »
There will be no Brexit, there will be a Second referendum to allow the 'Tattooed scum' who all voted 'Rule Brittania' the First time around to come to their senses. When they hear that their Welfare cheques might go down, they won't be long changing their minds.

Offline john m

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Re: smart arse bet
« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2019, 12:02:16 PM »
not sure Ken but 6s is worth a bet ,as I see it there are only two options They leave without a deal because any deal means a backstop and the DUP wont stand for that ,They are not afraid of a general election as they all have safe seats .Or they have to back down and cancel aricle 50 to have a second referendum that will only create more problems .The big decision maker is If they dont do Brexit will the Brexiteers run Riot in Britain that is a real risk but more important is Britain love rules that is why the EU dosent suit them they obey unlike us who ignore any rule we dont like .British Democracy is based on the sanctity of the ballott box and the rule of law and they must be respected for that .Think of it this way If there was a border poll and the leave  vote won with 51% you can be sure the Parliament would respect that vote the same would apply to Scottish Independence .I think in the long rum the British Government will respect the vote and leave and the only way they can do that is with no deal .

 Not since Oliver Cromwell have the Brits ignored the voters unlike this country who have no respect for voters as can be seen by some parties refusal to deal with constitutionally elected members of Dail Eireann.or accept referendum results .I think the House of Parliament which is the Father of All Parliamentry democracies world wide cannot ignore the will of the people .One of Britains big complaints about the EU is its lack of accountability so I cant see any other result except a general election where the brexit question is in the manifesto but May wont call an election and Labour cant force one .

Offline john m

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Re: smart arse bet
« Reply #14 on: January 21, 2019, 08:37:28 PM »
Powers laying a new bet 6/1 Britain leave without a deal in March .Has to be worth a few ton .WHY Tessy says britain are leaving .The papers are all suggesting second referendum or new deal but two things that wont or cannot change .No matter what deal there will be a backstop so if she goes for that then the DUP bring her government down so they drop out automatically as that is what Parliament voted for leave on March 29th .

 The second thing is European elections in May have to go ahead .The writ for those elections is already posted with extra seats for countries to make up for the loss of British Members .So the only way those elections will be canceled is if Britain decide to remain .

So you are now getting 6/1 that Britain leave as there is really no chance of a deal without the DUP collapsing Mays Government and she wont do that .

Yes (UK leave the EU on 30-03-2019 without Withdrawal Agreement in place)

 5/2  .

 


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